Who says Global Macro is dead



5 big figures in just over a month. Long live global macro.

And there may be more breadth for this run yet:
How low will yen go? Depends on the dollar

Some believe 110 is likely, and beyond:
Is USD/JPY Headed For 110?

Or even to infinity:
Our price target for the yen is infinity, says Axel Merk

Others turn up their noses and bad-mouth the currency:
Japan is eating its own capital
But the more important question is: Which has been, and will be, the better trade – the short Yen trade, or the long Nikkei trade?

[Forget about shorting JGBs, even though this is the market at the epicenter of the Abenomics money printing experiment. According to a certain smug HF-er, for us minnows, we ain’t got enough skin in the game to gain convexity exposure on the JGB yield curve. But wonder how that short JGB trade is working out for Kyle Bass and his Hyman Capital, considering that he eschewed the long Nikkei component. Hope he bulked up more on his currency bet:
Bass: …dollar/yen is going to 200… We’ve committed more capital to the currency market, but all of the convexity is in the bond market.

People have been predicting the coming collapse of JGBs for a long time, only to bleed to a slow death by a thousand glacial slow cuts.


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