Probable Futures & Excluded Histories

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita feat Michel Foucault


3 thoughts on “Probable Futures & Excluded Histories

  1. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, the New (probabilistic) Nostradamus.

    His models and algorithms are based on the premise of Rational Choice Theory. Which is predicated upon by Power.

    But has Mesquita read his Foucault ?

    Foucault’s Power-Knowledge structure.
    Especially through an examination of the,

    method of control that combines hierarchical observation with normalizing judgment. It is a prime example of what Foucault calls power/knowledge, since it combines into a unified whole “the deployment of force and the establishment of truth”,


    via the genealogy of the Panopticon/prison (enforced coercion).
    (Gilliam’s Brazil again! {the Panopticon dentist chair scene} )

    Foucault’s episteme: systems of possible discourses which comes to dominate each historical/political era. The existing dominant Power-Knowledge structure dictates what counts as knowledge and truth and what doesn’t. Rather than a linear chronology of inevitable facts that tells a coherent story, History is actually made up of layers of interweaving discourses kept suppressed and unconscious — and entire excluded histories.

    Mesquita’s high positive ‘forecasting’ rate is dependent on his interviewing and data collection of his selected panel of experts.
    Selection bias ?

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